New Report Forecasts Sustained Growth in the Pharmaceutical Market through 2020

Last month EvaluatePharma released an informative report titled, “World Preview 2015, Outlook to 2020”. The report did an excellent job outlining the current state of the pharmaceutical market and projected the state of the market in 2020. The report download is complimentary and is a wealth of information for anyone interested in researching top pharmaceutical companies, best selling drugs, top drug segments, R&D spending and much more.

The most encouraging news in the report is the predicted sustained growth. The forecast expects prescription drugs sales to advance at almost 5% a year until 2020 with worldwide prescription drug sales forecast to reach almost 1 trillion by 2020.

The report also forecasts a continuation of oncology as the largest prescription drug sales segment in 2020. This is not surprising based on the almost 2,000 cancer drugs in the R&D pipeline and the focus of R&D on this therapeutic segment. With respect to biologics, of the top 5 oncology drugs sales forecast for 2020, 3 were monoclonal antibodies, including Bristol-Myers Squibb and Ono’s Opdivo and Roche’s Avastin and Herceptin. In addition, Roche was forecast to continue as the top company in oncology drug sales through 2020. The current oncology market was covered in more detail in our recent blog, “Cancer Drug Market Continues to Grow and is Fueled by Significant R&D Focus and Clinical Pipeline.”

More good news was covered in the report as well, stating that in spite of the big success of some small molecule drugs, the “industry as a whole is forecast to enjoy the benefits of the move toward biological drugs.”

Forecast: Top 10 Biologics by Worldwide Sales in 2020
RankBiologicExpression SystemCompanyRank OverallApproved Indication
1Humira (adalimumab)CHOAbbVie1Moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis, moderate to severe Crohn’s disease; moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis, moderate to severe polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis
2Opdivo (nivolumab)not listedBristol- Myers Squibb and Ono3Indicated for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma and disease progression following ipilimumab and, if BRAF V600 mutation positive, a BRAF inhibitor.
3Enbrel (etanercept)CHOAmgen and Pfizer6Moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis
4Remicade (infliximab)Murine MyelomaJohnson & Johnson and Merck & Co.8Moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis in adults, in combination with methotrexate; Crohn's Disease in children 6 years and older, and adults who have not responded well to other medicines; rheumatoid arthritis; ankylosing spondylitis; psoriatic arthritis; chronic, severe, extensive, and/or disabling plaque psoriasis in adults; moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis in children 6 years and older and adults that have not responded well to other medicines
5Avastin (bevacizumab)CHORoche9Metastatic colorectal cancer (colon cancer), non–small cell lung cancer, glioblastoma & metastatic kidney
6Prevnar 13 (Pneumococcal 13-valent Conjugate Vaccine)Pfizer10Prevention of diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6A, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19A, 19F, and 23F in children ages six weeks through 17 years; prevention of otitis media caused by strains 4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F in children six weeks through five years; prevention of pneumococcal pneumonia and invasive disease caused by the 13 vaccine strains in adults ages 50 and older
7Eylea (aflibercept)CHORegeneron11Wet Age-related Macular Degeneration, Macular Edema following Retinal Vein Occlusion, Diabetic Macular Edema and Diabetic Retinopathy.
8Soliris (eculizumab)Murine MyelomaAlexion Pharmaceuticals14Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria.
9Herceptin (trastuzumab) CHORoche15HER2-positive breast cancer and HER2-positive metastatic gastric cancer
10RituxanCHORoche and Biogen Idec17Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and rheumatoid arthritis
Data Source: EvaluatePharma and Individual Drug Prescribing Information 

Some additional highlights from the report include:

  • Novartis is ranked as the number one pharmaceutical company in 2014 based on the highest worldwide prescription drug sales and is forecast to hold that position in 2020.
  • AbbVie’s Humira is forecast to continue to account for 25% of the anti-rheumatic market in 2020 and be the top selling drug overall.
  • Gilead is forecast to dominate the anti-viral market in 2020 with 50% of the market.
  • The industry’s overall R&D pipeline is currently valued at $493 billion.
  • Gilead’s potential new combination hepatitis C product is forecast as the most valuable product currently in the R&D pipeline.

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